Evidence-Based Investing
Evidence-Based Medicine became a formal movement in the continuous pursuit of improvement in the quality and consistency of clinical care. In the “olden days”, there was wide variation in practice patterns, tools, solutions and outcomes. At one point in time, it was “conventional” to use mercury for treating syphilis or gout, it was acceptable to […]
Cash Is King
Occasionally markets are priced at more extreme levels due to excessive optimism or pessimism. Presently, the excitement surrounding the potential benefits related to Artificial Intelligence (AI) has elevated prices paid for many assets to high levels. Alternatively, as it relates to the bond markets, the potential pessimism towards sovereign debt stability, due to high deficits […]
The Future Is Uncertain – Part 2
“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd” — Voltaire Covid started 5 years ago. At the time, the future was cloudy, confusing and “more uncertain” Day by day, week by week and month by month the pandemic gave way to normalcy. The world appeared more normal until Liberation Day. The process of […]
Markets Within Markets
“I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people” Isaac Newton On December 31, 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported “Stocks Cap Best Two Years in a Quarter-Century.” The story reports investors are far richer, increasingly bullish with expectations of continued interest rate reductions, strong economy and market gains. There […]
Same As Ever
The night before the D-Day invasion, Franklin Roosevelt asked Eleanor how she felt about not knowing what would happen next. Eleanor replied; “To be sixty and still rebel at uncertainty is ridiculous, isn’t it?” But we all do it. The future is uncertain and occasionally intimidating. And its easier to believe one can predict, anticipate […]
The Long-Term Expectations Of A High Performing Economy
The standard of living depends on the ability to produce goods and services and is described by the size of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in total, and per person. The advancement of living standards depends on the “growth” of GDP, which is the combination of population change and productivity change. And “real growth” of GDP […]
Long-Term Expectations: The Process Of Professionals Vs Amateurs
“The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself” – Ben Graham Ben Graham discussed the difference between amateurs (generally speculators) and professionals (or “true investors”). In the introduction of The Intelligent Investor, Graham explains the predominant process of amateurs being “generalizations and prejudices justified by past history”. […]
Charlie Munger – The Modern-Day Renaissance Man
“Develop into a lifelong self-learner through voracious reading; cultivate curiosity and strive to become a little wiser every day.” –Charlie Munger The following is a tribute to Charlie Munger who passed 33 days short of his 100th birthday on November 28, 2023. The term “renaissance man” originates from the Renaissance era where the efforts of […]
What Is Temperament?
“A lot of people with high IQs are terrible investors because they’ve got terrible temperaments. And that is why we say that having a certain kind of temperament is more important than brains. You need to keep raw irrational emotions under control. You need patience and discipline and an ability to take adversity without going […]
Temperament Beats Intellect In Investing
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine” Ben Graham Temperament beats intellect is the long-term truth regarding investment success. Temperament includes the ability to; How to think about markets Controlling the emotions of fear and greed by reacting rationally to short-term events. […]